Key Financial Metrics to consider for Bitcoin investments
In a recent conversation I was asked what metrics should be considered when considering Bitcoin as a financial investment. The following list isn't comprehensive but provides some insight toward considerations for investment.
Price:
Current Price: The market value of one Bitcoin.
Price History: Historical price movements and trends.
Market Capitalization:
The total value of all Bitcoins in circulation, calculated as the current price multiplied by the total supply.
Volume:
Trading Volume: The total amount of Bitcoin traded on exchanges within a specific period (24-hour, daily, weekly, etc.). Coinbase, Binance and Crypto.com are exchanges where traders can open accounts and track market volumes and performance.
On-Chain Volume: The volume of transactions that occur directly on the Bitcoin blockchain.
Supply Metrics:
Total Supply: The total number of Bitcoins that have been mined to date.
Circulating Supply: The number of Bitcoins currently in circulation and available for trading.
Max Supply: The maximum number of Bitcoins that will ever exist (21 million).
Volatility:
The degree of variation in Bitcoin's price over a specific period, often measured by standard deviation or other statistical metrics. Its worth considering how Bitcoin volatilty stacks up against traditional financial markets. While consensus suggests its a hyper volatile asset consideration to market controls, manipulation and suppression of the US Stock market should be considered.
Hash Rate:
The total computational power being used to mine and process Bitcoin transactions. It reflects the security and health of the Bitcoin network.
Mining Difficulty:
A measure of how hard it is to mine a new block of Bitcoin. It adjusts approximately every two weeks to ensure blocks are mined at a consistent rate.
Transaction Metrics:
Number of Transactions: Total number of Bitcoin transactions over a given period.
Transaction Fees: The fees paid for processing transactions on the Bitcoin network.
Addresses:
Active Addresses: The number of unique addresses that were active either as a sender or receiver over a certain period.
Whale Addresses: Aggregations of various wallets with 1000 or more bitcoin and activity within periods generally less than 1 year can be utilized for forecasting of market direction toward the sell or buy side.
New Addresses: The number of new Bitcoin addresses created within a specific period.
Liquidity:
The ease with which Bitcoin can be bought or sold without affecting its price. This can be assessed by looking at order book depth and bid-ask spreads on exchanges.
Sentiment and Adoption Metrics:
Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment and investor mood, often measured through surveys, social media analysis, and sentiment indices.
Fear & Greed Index: several aggregates are published and calculate near realtime sentiment. Search Google with the phrase Fear and Greed Index Bitcoin for examples.
Adoption Rates: The rate at which new users, merchants, and institutions are adopting Bitcoin.
Regulatory Environment:
Current regulations and any upcoming regulatory changes that could impact Bitcoin's use and trading.
Macro-economic Factors:
Broader economic factors such as inflation rates, interest rates, and geopolitical events that could influence Bitcoin's price.
Technological Developments:
Updates and improvements to the Bitcoin protocol, developments in the ecosystem, and advancements in related technologies like the Lightning Network.
These metrics collectively provide a comprehensive overview of Bitcoin's financial health, market activity, and potential future performance.