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The Japanese yen carry trade, a popular strategy among global investors, involves borrowing yen at low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad. For decades, this strategy has fueled significant flows of capital, influencing global markets. However, when the carry trade unwinds—often due to sudden yen appreciation or global financial instability—it can lead to significant market turbulence. Interestingly, the fallout from such events could have long-term benefits for Bitcoin, positioning it as a haven for investors seeking stability and decentralized assets.The yen carry trade thrives on the difference in interest rates between Japan and other countries. Investors borrow yen at minimal costs and invest in assets with higher returns, such as U.S. stocks or emerging market bonds. This strategy can be profitable during periods of low volatility, but it’s highly vulnerable to sudden shifts in market conditions. A rapid yen appreciation or a global financial crisis can force investors to unwind their positions, leading to a massive sell-off in riskier assets and triggering financial instability.When the carry trade unwinds, it often results in significant market disruptions, leading to a flight to safety. Traditionally, this means investors flock to assets like gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, or the yen itself. However, Bitcoin is increasingly seen as an alternative haven during such crises. The fallout from the carry trade highlights the vulnerabilities of the traditional financial system—centralized, heavily reliant on fiat currencies, and susceptible to systemic risks.As investors seek assets that are not tied to any single economy or monetary policy, Bitcoin’s appeal grows. Bitcoin operates on a decentralized network, immune to government interventions or policy shifts that can trigger carry trade unwinds. Moreover, its fixed supply and deflationary nature make it an attractive store of value in times of monetary instability.The recurring cycles of yen carry trade unwinds and the subsequent financial instability underscore the need for a more resilient store of value. Bitcoin, often dubbed "digital gold," fits this role. Its decentralized nature, global accessibility, and growing adoption among institutional investors position it as a long-term beneficiary of the weaknesses exposed by the carry trade.As more investors recognize the risks inherent in traditional financial strategies like the carry trade, Bitcoin could see increased adoption. This shift may be gradual, but each financial shock accelerates the trend, pushing Bitcoin further into the mainstream as a reliable asset in times of crisis.While the fallout from the Japanese carry trade presents challenges for the global financial system, it also highlights the benefits of decentralized, borderless assets like Bitcoin. As traditional markets grapple with systemic risks, Bitcoin stands to gain as a long-term store of value, offering stability in an increasingly uncertain world.

The Japanese carry trade & Bitcoin

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In August 2024, IoTeX announced a comprehensive update to its tokenomics, aimed at enhancing the utility and value of the IOTX token within its ecosystem. This new tokenomics model aligns with the broader vision of IoTeX 2.0, which emphasizes modularity and interconnected infrastructure.New Tokenomics - Key Elements Burn-to-Certify Mechanism: This mechanism ensures that both human and machine identities are verified and trusted within the IoTeX Network. Device manufacturers will need to burn IOTX tokens to obtain a "Powered by IoTeX" certificate for their devices. This certificate grants access to specific network services and capabilities, such as decentralized warranties and zero gas fees up to a certain limit. The burning process effectively reduces the total supply of IOTX, creating a deflationary effect that can increase the token's value over time. Stake-to-Service Framework: Service providers in the IoTeX ecosystem will be required to stake IOTX tokens to deliver their services. This requirement ensures that providers are committed to maintaining high service levels. Providers that fail to meet their service level agreements (SLAs) will face penalties, including the slashing of their staked tokens. This framework incentivizes high-quality service provision and aligns the interests of service providers with the overall health of the network. Enhanced Governance: IoTeX continues to emphasize decentralized governance. IOTX holders can stake their tokens to participate in network governance by electing delegates and voting on important proposals. This decentralized approach enhances network security and ensures that decisions reflect the community's interests. Emission and Deflation: IoTeX has introduced mechanisms to balance token emission and deflation. While staking rewards generate new tokens, the burn-to-certify mechanism and penalties for service providers contribute to token deflation. This balanced approach aims to maintain a stable token supply and support long-term value appreciation. These changes are designed to support IoTeX's goal of onboarding 100 million devices and unlocking significant real-world value on the blockchain within the next few years. The updated tokenomics model not only incentivizes participation and high service quality but also enhances the overall utility and value of the IOTX token in the IoTeX ecosystem​

Modularity as a Service - The case for IoTeX

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Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has experienced a sharp decline, echoing some of the most significant market downturns seen in recent years. The price of Bitcoin dropped by approximately 12.6%, reaching around $50,827, and the entire crypto market saw a nearly 12% decrease in value​ (Cryptonews)​​.Key Factors Contributing to the Drop Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty: Investors are increasingly concerned about a potential recession in the United States, fueled by weak job growth and rising unemployment rates. This economic instability has led to a broader risk-off sentiment across global markets​ (Cryptonews)​​ (Finbold)​. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have also contributed to market anxiety, causing investors to pull out of riskier assets like cryptocurrencies​ (Cryptonews)​. Government Actions: The U.S. government recently transferred nearly 30,000 BTC from wallets related to the Department of Justice’s Silk Road seizures. This significant move has spooked the market, as it raises concerns about potential sell-offs and market flooding​ (CryptoNews)​. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's decisions and statements have not provided the expected market reassurance, further contributing to the bearish sentiment. The Fed's recent meeting left interest rates unchanged, but this did not alleviate market fears, leading to a sell-off​ (CoinGape)​. Market Dynamics and Technical Indicators: Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin's price is likely to continue its downward trend in the short term. Indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Bollinger Bands (BB) point to potential further declines​ (CryptoNews)​​ (InvestingHaven)​. Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows, with investors pulling out $237 million recently. This large-scale withdrawal indicates a lack of confidence and has added to the downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price​ (Cryptonews)​. Liquidations and Speculative Trading:Over $800 million was liquidated across the crypto market within a short period, exacerbating the sell-off. This high level of liquidation often leads to further declines as positions are forcibly closed​ (Cryptonews)​. Speculative trading activities and the behavior of top traders on major exchanges like Binance also play a role. Despite the drop, many traders are buying the dip, indicating mixed sentiments and high volatility in the market​ (CryptoNews)​. Outlook and Investor Sentiment Despite the current downturn, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Historical trends suggest that Bitcoin could recover if it manages to hold critical support levels and market conditions stabilize. However, the immediate outlook remains cautious, with potential for further declines if current economic and geopolitical uncertainties persist.

'Buy the red- sell the green' - Market Turbulence

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<h2>Understanding the Fear and Greed Index</h2>The Fear and Greed Index is a tool that helps investors understand the market sentiment around Bitcoin. It measures the emotions and attitudes of the market, providing insights into whether investors feel fearful or greedy. This index can be a valuable resource for anyone involved in cryptocurrency. By analyzing different factors, it provides a snapshot of the current market mood. This can help investors make informed decisions about buying or selling Bitcoin.<figure id="figure-fvakd70raglzfz26ap"><img id="fvakd70raglzfz26ap" src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1650959828226-f9d53a7c1f64?crop=entropy&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;fit=max&amp;fm=jpg&amp;ixid=M3wyNjI5NjF8MHwxfHNlYXJjaHwyfHxiaXRjb2luJTIwY2hhcnR8ZW58MHx8fHwxNzIyODAwNzA4fDA&amp;ixlib=rb-4.0.3&amp;q=80&amp;w=1080" alt="bitcoin chart" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 " style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;" data-mce-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1650959828226-f9d53a7c1f64?crop=entropy&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;fit=max&amp;fm=jpg&amp;ixid=M3wyNjI5NjF8MHwxfHNlYXJjaHwyfHxiaXRjb2luJTIwY2hhcnR8ZW58MHx8fHwxNzIyODAwNzA4fDA&amp;ixlib=rb-4.0.3&amp;q=80&amp;w=1080" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;"></figure><h3>The Importance of Understanding Market Sentiment</h3>Market sentiment can influence Bitcoin prices. When the index shows extreme fear, it might indicate that investors are too worried, creating a buying opportunity. On the other hand, extreme greed might signal that the market is due for a correction.Investors can use the Fear and Greed Index in various ways. For instance, they might decide to buy Bitcoin when the index shows fear, expecting prices to rise once the sentiment shifts. Conversely, they might sell when the index indicates greed, anticipating a price drop.Additionally, the index can help investors time their market entry and exit points. By monitoring changes in sentiment, they can better understand when to enter or exit the market.The index might not always predict short-term price movements. Investors should use it alongside other analysis tools for a more comprehensive view. Moreover, the index mainly reflects the sentiment of retail investors. Institutional investors might have different perspectives, and their actions can also impact the market. Some examples of these may be found here: <a href="https://www.binance.com/en/square/fear-and-greed-index" data-mce-href="https://www.binance.com/en/square/fear-and-greed-index">https://www.binance.com/en/square/fear-and-greed-index</a>&nbsp; <a href="https://www.bitdegree.org/cryptocurrency-prices/fear-and-greed-index" data-mce-href="https://www.bitdegree.org/cryptocurrency-prices/fear-and-greed-index">https://www.bitdegree.org/cryptocurrency-prices/fear-and-greed-index</a>&nbsp; <a href="https://cfgi.io/bitcoin-fear-greed-index/" data-mce-href="https://cfgi.io/bitcoin-fear-greed-index/">https://cfgi.io/bitcoin-fear-greed-index/</a> (NOTE: my personal favorite due to its 15 minute refresh rate) The Fear and Greed Index offers valuable insights into Bitcoin's market sentiment. By understanding and using this tool, investors can make more informed decisions and potentially improve their investment outcomes. However, it is essential that you use the index as part of a broader analysis strategy.

Understanding the Current Fear and Greed Index for Bitcoin

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Here is a list of the top 35 companies that have publicly embraced Bitcoin self-custody. We included their holdings where that information was available:1. MicroStrategy Holdings: Over 130,000 BTC Details: Known for holding a significant amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet as a reserve asset. 2.Tesla Holdings: Approximately 9,720 BTC Details: Initially bought $1.5 billion in Bitcoin and has since adjusted its holdings while maintaining a notable balance. 3. Block, Inc. (formerly Square)Holdings: Around 8,027 BTC Details: Embraced Bitcoin as part of its corporate treasury strategy. 4. Galaxy DigitalHoldings: Substantial, but varies Details: Manages its own Bitcoin holdings alongside other digital assets. 5. Hut 8 Mining CorpHoldings: Approximately 9,109 BTC Details: A major Bitcoin mining company that holds self-mined Bitcoin. 6. Riot Platforms, Inc. (formerly Riot Blockchain)Holdings: Around 9,084 BTC Details: Another major Bitcoin mining company with significant holdings. 7. CoinbaseHoldings: Significant BTC holdings as part of its corporate treasury and custodial services for clients. 8. Marathon Digital HoldingsHoldings: Approximately 12,232 BTC Details: A Bitcoin mining company focused on increasing its Bitcoin reserves. 9. BitfarmsHoldings: Approximately 5,243 BTC Details: A publicly traded Bitcoin mining company that holds Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. 10. Argo BlockchainHoldings: Approximately 2,700 BTC Details: A blockchain technology company that mines cryptocurrency and holds Bitcoin as part of its assets. 11. Voyager DigitalHoldings: Around 12,260 BTC Details: A cryptocurrency broker that holds a significant amount of Bitcoin. 12. Grayscale InvestmentsHoldings: Manages the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) which holds 654,600 BTC. 13. NYDIG (New York Digital Investment Group)Holdings: Substantial, but exact numbers vary Details: Provides Bitcoin investment and technology solutions. 14. Fidelity Digital AssetsHoldings: Substantial as part of its custodial services for institutional clients. 15. KrakenHoldings: Significant BTC holdings as part of its custodial services for clients. 16. Anchorage DigitalHoldings: Substantial BTC holdings as part of its institutional custody services. 17. GeminiHoldings: Significant BTC holdings as part of its custodial services for clients. 18. BitGoHoldings: Manages over 700,000 BTC across various custodial solutions. 19. FireblocksHoldings: Substantial BTC holdings as part of its custodial services for institutional clients. 20. LedgerHoldings: Substantial BTC holdings secured through its hardware wallet solutions. 21. BakktHoldings: Significant BTC holdings as part of its digital asset custody and trading platform. 22. NexoHoldings: Significant BTC holdings as part of its cryptocurrency lending and custodial services. 23. BlockstreamHoldings: Substantial BTC holdings as part of its self-custody solutions and mining operations. 24. CoinSharesHoldings: Manages significant BTC holdings through its investment products. 25. eToroHoldings: Significant BTC holdings as part of its investment platform. 26. RobinhoodHoldings: Significant BTC holdings as part of its trading platform. 27. RevolutHoldings: Significant BTC holdings as part of its financial services platform. 28. PayPalHoldings: Substantial BTC holdings as part of its cryptocurrency services. 29. Mercado BitcoinHoldings: Significant BTC holdings as part of its cryptocurrency exchange services. 30. BitstampHoldings: Significant BTC holdings as part of its exchange platform. 31. BinanceHoldings: Substantial BTC holdings as part of its exchange and custodial services. 32. Crypto.comHoldings: Significant BTC holdings as part of its exchange and custodial services. 33. Genesis Global TradingHoldings: Substantial BTC holdings as part of its institutional trading and custody services. 34. PaxosHoldings: Significant BTC holdings as part of its digital asset services. 35. DigitalXHoldings: Substantial BTC holdings as part of its blockchain technology and digital asset management services. These companies span various industries including technology, finance, and cryptocurrency mining, reflecting a broad adoption of Bitcoin self-custody. They utilize a combination of hot and cold storage solutions, multi-signature setups, and hardware wallets to ensure the security and control of their Bitcoin holdings.

35 Companies With Bitcoin on the Balance Sheet

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In a recent conversation I was asked what metrics should be considered when considering Bitcoin as a financial investment. The following list isn't comprehensive but provides some insight toward considerations for investment.Price: Current Price: The market value of one Bitcoin. Price History: Historical price movements and trends. Market Capitalization: The total value of all Bitcoins in circulation, calculated as the current price multiplied by the total supply. Volume: Trading Volume: The total amount of Bitcoin traded on exchanges within a specific period (24-hour, daily, weekly, etc.). Coinbase, Binance and Crypto.com are exchanges where traders can open accounts and track market volumes and performance. On-Chain Volume: The volume of transactions that occur directly on the Bitcoin blockchain. Supply Metrics: Total Supply: The total number of Bitcoins that have been mined to date. Circulating Supply: The number of Bitcoins currently in circulation and available for trading. Max Supply: The maximum number of Bitcoins that will ever exist (21 million). Volatility: The degree of variation in Bitcoin's price over a specific period, often measured by standard deviation or other statistical metrics. Its worth considering how Bitcoin volatilty stacks up against traditional financial markets. While consensus suggests its a hyper volatile asset consideration to market controls, manipulation and suppression of the US Stock market should be considered. Hash Rate: The total computational power being used to mine and process Bitcoin transactions. It reflects the security and health of the Bitcoin network. Mining Difficulty: A measure of how hard it is to mine a new block of Bitcoin. It adjusts approximately every two weeks to ensure blocks are mined at a consistent rate. Transaction Metrics: Number of Transactions: Total number of Bitcoin transactions over a given period. Transaction Fees: The fees paid for processing transactions on the Bitcoin network. Addresses: Active Addresses: The number of unique addresses that were active either as a sender or receiver over a certain period. Whale Addresses: Aggregations of various wallets with 1000 or more bitcoin and activity within periods generally less than 1 year can be utilized for forecasting of market direction toward the sell or buy side. New Addresses: The number of new Bitcoin addresses created within a specific period. Liquidity: The ease with which Bitcoin can be bought or sold without affecting its price. This can be assessed by looking at order book depth and bid-ask spreads on exchanges. Sentiment and Adoption Metrics: Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment and investor mood, often measured through surveys, social media analysis, and sentiment indices.Fear &amp; Greed Index: several aggregates are published and calculate near realtime sentiment. Search Google with the phrase Fear and Greed Index Bitcoin for examples. Adoption Rates: The rate at which new users, merchants, and institutions are adopting Bitcoin. Regulatory Environment: Current regulations and any upcoming regulatory changes that could impact Bitcoin's use and trading. Macro-economic Factors: Broader economic factors such as inflation rates, interest rates, and geopolitical events that could influence Bitcoin's price. Technological Developments: Updates and improvements to the Bitcoin protocol, developments in the ecosystem, and advancements in related technologies like the Lightning Network. These metrics collectively provide a comprehensive overview of Bitcoin's financial health, market activity, and potential future performance.&nbsp;

Insights

The Japanese carry trade & Bitcoin

Modularity as a Service - The case for IoTeX

'Buy the red- sell the green' - Market Turbulence

Understanding the Current Fear and Greed Index for Bitcoin

35 Companies With Bitcoin on the Balance Sheet

Key Financial Metrics to consider for Bitcoin investments