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What if Bitcoin were around during the Great depression? How would it fare against Stocks or Real Estate over a 5 year time horizon. The following calculations forecast against these 3 in a hypothetical scenario where an investor in 1929 invests $10 in each asset class and where their investment stands five years later. (Adjusted for inflation, $10 from 1929 would be worth approximately $175.93 in fiat USD today (2024).) <table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;" border="1" data-mce-style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;" data-mce-selected="1"><tbody><tr><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">Investment Type</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">Initial Investment&nbsp;</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">ARR%</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">Value after 5 years</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">Total Return %</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">Stocks</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">$10</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">-20%</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">$3</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">-67%</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">Real Estate</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">$10</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">-10%</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">$6</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">-41%</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">Bitcoin</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">$10</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">30%</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">$37</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">271%</td></tr></tbody></table>Stocks: ARR: -20% Initial Investment: $10 Value after 5 years: $3.28 Total Return: -67.23% Real Estate: ARR: -10% Initial Investment: $10 Value after 5 years: $5.90 Total Return: -40.95% Bitcoin (hypothetical): ARR: 30% Initial Investment: $10 Value after 5 years: $37.13 Total Return: 271.29% These calculations illustrate the severe impact of the 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression on traditional investments, while a hypothetical Bitcoin investment demonstrates significant positive returns. Obviolusly theres a lot of variables unaccounted for (i.e. computers didn't exist en-masse at this time) but its a fun exercise to see how these hypothetical assets might fare during difficult economic times, like the great depression.

The Great Depression - A Bitcoin what if

Asian woman entering journal entries in accounting software

Michael Saylor calls Bitcoin the Digital Manhatten and says you can get ownership on the ground floor. Assuming he's right and historicals hold true how would Bitcoin stack up against Stocks and Real estate over the short term? The following grids provide a 3 year scenario for someone investing $100K USD.<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;" border="1" data-mce-style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">Investment Type</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">Initial Investment</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">ARR (%)</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">Value After 3 Years</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">Total Return (%)</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">Stocks</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">$100K</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">8</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">$126K</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">26%</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">Real Estate</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">$100K</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">6</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">$119K</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">19%</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">Bitcoin</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">$100K</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">50</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">$338K</td><td style="width: 20%;" data-mce-style="width: 20%;">238%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Calculator - Bitcoin vs Real Estate Vs Stocks

Bitcoin in recession global market crisis stock red price drop arrow down chart fall, Money losing moving economic inflation deflation investment loss crash, 3d rendering

Kamala Harris has not explicitly stated a plan to make Bitcoin a reserve currency. However, there are some indications of her general stance on cryptocurrency and how it might influence her policies if she were to focus on this area. Here are some key points:Open to Crypto and Tech Innovations: Harris has shown openness to technological advancements, including cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence. This is supported by comments from Mark Cuban, who believes she will be more receptive to these innovations compared to the current administration​ (The Defiant)​​ (CryptoNews)​. Regulatory Background and Connections: Harris has deep ties to the tech industry from her time as California's Attorney General, where she built strong connections in Silicon Valley. Despite this, she has not taken a definitive public stance on cryptocurrency during her tenure as Vice President​ (The Defiant)​​ (FX Leaders)​. Potential Policies and Regulatory Approach: Harris might continue the Biden administration’s cautious regulatory approach, given her alignment with Biden. This includes enforcement actions by regulatory bodies like the SEC against cryptocurrency firms. However, there is speculation that she could pivot to a more crypto-friendly stance to differentiate herself from other candidates like Donald Trump​ (The Defiant)​​ (InsideBitcoins.com)​. Campaign and Industry Perception: Harris’s campaign has been in discussions about her participation in crypto-related events, signaling a possible interest in engaging with the cryptocurrency community. This is seen as a potential move to reset the Democratic Party’s positioning on digital assets and attract the growing voter base interested in cryptocurrency​ (The Defiant)​​ (InsideBitcoins.com)​. In summary, while Kamala Harris has not outlined a specific plan to make Bitcoin a reserve currency, her background and recent interactions suggest a potential openness to cryptocurrency and tech innovations. Her exact policies would likely depend on further developments and her campaign's strategic decisions regarding the crypto community.

Strategic Reserve Asset - Bitcoin (Harris Plan)

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has proposed a comprehensive plan to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset for the United States if he is elected president. His plan centers on integrating Bitcoin into the financial system to enhance economic stability and ensure financial freedom. Here are the key components of his proposal:Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve: Kennedy intends to direct the U.S. Treasury to purchase 550 Bitcoin daily until the U.S. amasses a reserve of 4 million Bitcoin. This would represent about 20% of the total supply and position the U.S. as a major holder of Bitcoin. He also plans to transfer approximately 200,000 Bitcoin currently held by the government to the Treasury, designating it as a strategic asset. Backing the Dollar with Bitcoin and Other Hard Assets: Kennedy's vision includes backing U.S. Treasury bills, notes, and bonds with tangible assets like Bitcoin, gold, silver, and platinum. He believes this would restore strength to the dollar, curb inflation, and bring about financial stability. Initially, he proposes starting with 1% of issued T-bills backed by these hard assets, with potential increases based on the plan’s success. Tax Exemptions for Bitcoin Transactions: To spur investment and innovation, Kennedy plans to make Bitcoin-to-dollar transactions exempt from capital gains taxes. This measure aims to attract businesses and investors to the U.S. and prevent them from relocating to other crypto-friendly countries. Financial Freedom and Anti-Corruption: Kennedy emphasizes the importance of financial freedom, likening transactional freedom to freedom of expression. He believes that Bitcoin can serve as a hedge against the corruption and economic instability caused by fiat currencies and centralized financial systems. Appointment of a Crypto Advisor: Kennedy also plans to appoint a national security advisor focused on cryptocurrency, recognizing the potential of Bitcoin and other digital assets to enhance U.S. economic and cybersecurity. 'Kennedy’s approach contrasts with traditional monetary policies and reflects his belief in Bitcoin’s potential to revolutionize the financial system and provide a more stable and transparent economic future​' (CryptoSlate)​​ (EconoTimes)​​ (Cointelegraph)​​ (BeInCrypto)​.

Strategic Reserve Asset - Bitcoin (RFKs Plan)

Donald Trump's plan to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset (SRA) if re-elected focuses on positioning the United States as a leader in the cryptocurrency space. Trump announced this plan during his speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, emphasizing his intention to maintain all Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. government as an (SRA). This would serve as the foundation of a national Bitcoin stockpile aimed at bolstering the legitimacy and value of Bitcoin globally.Key components of Trump's plan include:Retaining Government Bitcoin Holdings: Trump proposed that the U.S. retain 100% of its Bitcoin holdings, positioning it as a strategic reserve asset. Crypto-Friendly Policies: He pledged to end what he described as the current administration’s "anti-crypto" stance, specifically targeting regulations he sees as restrictive. Appointing a Pro-Crypto SEC Chair: Trump plans to replace the current SEC Chair with someone more supportive of cryptocurrency and blockchain innovation. Establishing a Presidential Crypto Advisor: This role would oversee the integration and promotion of cryptocurrencies within the U.S. financial system. 'Encouraging Bitcoin Mining: Trump aims to make the U.S. a dominant player in Bitcoin mining, preventing other nations, particularly China, from taking the lead in this sector'​ (Crypto Briefing)​​ (BlockNews.com - CRYPTO NFT NEWS)​. Trump’s pro-crypto stance marks a significant shift from his previous skepticism about digital currencies. His proposed policies aim to boost investor confidence in Bitcoin and integrate it more deeply into the U.S. economy, potentially driving its adoption and value upward.

Strategic Reserve Asset - Bitcoin (Trumps plan)

Day 2 started out with larger crowds. The Festival Pass goers were allowed in the doors and the lines for them to enter the Nakamoto main stage where Trump, Kennedy and Michael Saylor are speaking were quite long. Wrapping around the building into the exhibit hall there were literally thousands waiting to get in. This was likely due to only a few metal detectors manned by a mix of Secret Service and general security personnel.Located in the Exhibit hall was the Genesis Stage where I sat in on my days first session. 0900 - Founders on a Lightning Standard - Marketing 3 guests prodded by a moderator discussed a variety of topics that centered toward on-ramps for Bitcoin. Desiree Dickson from a gaming company spoke about embedding it in their gaming platform and the challenges to adoption they face with users using it for payment. Roy Sheinfeld, a developer, spoke about the Samurai mixer service trial in the United States and espoused the injustices of it. Evan Kaloudis chimed in to discuss some of the problems with the tax system in the United States tucking Crypto under capital gains making adoption even more challenging.<figure id="figure-c48yuuoqoolz30zurb"><img id="c48yuuoqoolz30zurb" src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/2aKZN3aE78mDpMVSAxF23KDbKBh6Kged1wQhMWePBr6bEwSvMnjHcWKMfF8VvAnw.jpg" alt="Businessmen investor think before buying stock market investment using smartphone to analyze trading data. investor analysis with stock exchange graph on screen. Financial stock market." title="Businessmen investor think before buying stock market investment using smartphone to analyze trading data. investor analysis with stock exchange graph on screen. Financial stock market." class="object-cover bg-gray-100 " style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="16:9" data-caption="" data-positionx="undefined" data-positiony="undefined" data-fullwidth="false" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/2aKZN3aE78mDpMVSAxF23KDbKBh6Kged1wQhMWePBr6bEwSvMnjHcWKMfF8VvAnw.jpg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;"></figure>--10am - Mining and Power GridThe Crypto Mining stage located in the Exhibit hall had a session titled Bitcoin Mining and the Grid. Knowing nothing about power companies or Crypto mining operations I sat in on the discussion with Austin Mitchel (Synota), Kent Draper (Tren), Kerri Langlais (Terawulf) and Mario Gutierrez (Giga Energy). The discussion brought up several interesting points I’d never considered about the positive and negative affects of bitcoin mining on power generation…..Crypto mining power loads are treated differently than others by regulatory agencies. It was inferred they would be charged more than a company who might be performing technically similar functions with similar equipment such as a company doing AI.British Columbia put in a moratorium on crypto connections to their grid because of reported power constraints it caused.Bitcoin mining can foster the intersection of big tech with big energy and is doing so in Pennsylvania at Nautili’s crypto mine that is connected to a Nuclear power plant and employs 1600 employees operating the plant each day.The panels consensus was the grid of tomorrow provides a generational opportunity for abundant energy through decentralization of power production.<figure id="figure-pwh2am0fuelz3cq26q" class=""><img id="pwh2am0fuelz3cq26q" src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/39jkUCN4ApRscQ38MozZJySp3UuK0bCgN0gJsR2aEQ2kFvouNaohm50gsOoTMXw0.jpg" alt="Young woman working at night modern office loft.Red and green candlestick chart and stock trading on background. Double exposure." title="Young woman working at night modern office loft.Red and green candlestick chart and stock trading on background. Double exposure." class="object-cover bg-gray-100" style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="16:9" data-caption="" data-positionx="undefined" data-positiony="undefined" data-fullwidth="false" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/39jkUCN4ApRscQ38MozZJySp3UuK0bCgN0gJsR2aEQ2kFvouNaohm50gsOoTMXw0.jpg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;"></figure><figure id="figure-ppmtrjbbdglz3ctj35"><img id="ppmtrjbbdglz3ctj35" src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/25r8P9EgYeVnE7YskdNnA8kfMzwMHqxmrVvFv4h9u3jcwmCX5h19q2ngf5smIkZf.jpg" alt="Woman is checking Bitcoin price chart on digital exchange on smartphone, cryptocurrency future price action prediction." title="Woman is checking Bitcoin price chart on digital exchange on smartphone, cryptocurrency future price action prediction." class="object-cover bg-gray-100 " style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="16:9" data-caption="" data-positionx="undefined" data-positiony="undefined" data-fullwidth="false" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/25r8P9EgYeVnE7YskdNnA8kfMzwMHqxmrVvFv4h9u3jcwmCX5h19q2ngf5smIkZf.jpg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;"></figure>--1030 - Enterprise Stage - AccountingAt 1030 the Enterprise stage hosted the Demystifying the World of Bitcoin by Markus Veith (Grant Thornton), Rob Logan (Gemini), Ed Reginelli (BitGo), Brian Carson (CleanSpark) and Aaron Jacob (TaxBit). This stage was located in the VIP section restricted to Industry and Whale pass holders. It’s because of this I suspect the crowds were much smaller. Some helpful points that came out of the discussion included….Prior guidance by FASB didn’t reflect the true value of Bitcoin but Fair value regulation fixed this by simplifying the accounting, according to Brian Carson.SAB121 legislation has an impact on custodians and was considered bad by the group because it requires any company touching customers funds to provide disclosure and reporting. It was further mentioned that the SEC came out with these rules after soliciting no feedback which is unusual. As a result this has seemingly unified much of the US Congress.<figure id="figure-xnkfu83ppmlz428xtz"><img id="xnkfu83ppmlz428xtz" src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/161Cx4m1FKMO63BfERYvKW5dqt8bEIOmAHrxlY0c9bMxSpBjlqtb9ykMag7cL7VK.jpg" alt="Woman is checking Bitcoin price chart on digital exchange on smartphone, cryptocurrency future price action prediction." title="Woman is checking Bitcoin price chart on digital exchange on smartphone, cryptocurrency future price action prediction." class="object-cover bg-gray-100 " style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="16:9" data-caption="" data-positionx="undefined" data-positiony="undefined" data-fullwidth="false" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/161Cx4m1FKMO63BfERYvKW5dqt8bEIOmAHrxlY0c9bMxSpBjlqtb9ykMag7cL7VK.jpg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;"></figure>

Insights

The Great Depression - A Bitcoin what if

Calculator - Bitcoin vs Real Estate Vs Stocks

Strategic Reserve Asset - Bitcoin (Harris Plan)

Strategic Reserve Asset - Bitcoin (RFKs Plan)

Strategic Reserve Asset - Bitcoin (Trumps plan)

Day 2 - BTC Nashville 24 - Marketing, Mining, Accounting